Early Oscar Predictions: the Nominees
Picture
No Country for Old Men
There Will be Blood
Atonement
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
American Gangster
Dark Horse: Gone, Baby, Gone
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will be Blood)
Ben Affleck (Gone, Baby, Gone)
Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Mike Nichols (Charlie Wilson’s War)
David Fincher (Zodiac)
Dark Horse: Tim Burton (Sweeny Todd)
Actor
John Cusack (Grace is Gone)
Richard Gere (The Hoax)
Daniel Day Lewis (There Will be Blood)
Casey Affleck (Gone, Baby, Gone)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)
Dark Horse: Brad Pitt (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Actress
Kiera Knightly (Atonement)
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)
Julie Christie (Away From Her)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Cate Blanchett (
Dark Horse: Ellen Page (Juno)
Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones (No Country for Old Men)
Josh Brolin (No Country for Old Men)
Philip Seymore Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Russell Crow (American Gangster)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Dark Horse: Christian Bale (3:10 to
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
Saorise Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone, Baby, Gone)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)
Susan Sarandon (In the
Dark Horse: Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Screenplay (Adapted)
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will be Blood)
James Vanderbilt (Zodiac)
Aaron Sorkin (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Ben Affleck, Aaron Stockard (Gone, Baby, Gone)
Dark Horse: Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
Screenplay (Original)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Steven Zaillian (American Gangster)
Brad Bird (Ratatouille)
Steven Knight (Eastern Promises)
Carl Ellsworth (Disturbia)
Dark Horse: Judd Apatow (Knocked Up)
Yours Truly,
Cinnamon J. Scudworth
Note: I am compelled to confess that I haven’t actually yet seen all of the above movies, so until I catch up on the last couple, I am refraining from picking winners.
I should also disclose that this list represents an amalgamation of what I actually think will happen and what I personally want to happen (i.e. Cate Blanchett is likely to get the nod, but I wistfully hope that Ellen Page does).
Comment by Scudworth — December 29, 2007 @ 11:15 am
I think CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR is more likely to get a best picture nod than EASTERN PROMISES or AMERICAN GANGSTER.
Comment by Brian G — December 29, 2007 @ 11:37 am
Brian,
I think CWW deserves the nod more and sincerely hope it gets it; but I don’t expect much from an academy that snubbed Children of Men last year.
Comment by Scudworth — December 29, 2007 @ 12:09 pm
Children of Men is the sort of depressing dark movie the Academy doesn’t seem to like; Eastern Promises is the same. I think CWW is exactly the sort of movie (socially conscious, redemptive, etc) that is likely to get a nomination.
Similarly, I don’t think Ellen Page is a dark horse. In fact, she might be the favorite for the statue. I also think Juno gets a screenplay nomination, as does Atonement. Zodiac gets ignored.
Ah, Disturbia.
Comment by Matt B — December 29, 2007 @ 1:07 pm
Matt,
I hope you’re right about Ellen Page and wrong about Zodiac.
And while Children of Men was dark and depressing it was also one of the most hopeful and inspiring films I’ve seen in some time.
Comment by Scudworth — December 29, 2007 @ 1:20 pm
Children of Men got my vote for most overrated film last year.
Comment by clark — December 29, 2007 @ 1:56 pm
The only movie I’ve seen on this list is Ratatouille, and while I thought it was good, didn’t think it was great. The only one I’m slightly interested in is Into the Wild. I loved the book.
Comment by Susan M — December 29, 2007 @ 2:01 pm
I think Juno gets a nod for both actress and screenplay.
Comment by BTD Greg — December 29, 2007 @ 2:13 pm
Clark,
I don’t even know where to begin, man…
[shakes head in confused frustration, nervously resisting temptation to loudly hurl tearful, unrestrained obscenities at computer monitor]
Comment by Scudworth — December 29, 2007 @ 2:17 pm
Also, I think Angelica Huston might be a dark horse for supporting actress for The Darjeeling Limited.
Comment by BTD Greg — December 29, 2007 @ 2:21 pm
The name escapes me, but the Lumet film seems to be getting high praise. I’ve also heard Phillip Seymour Hoffman might very well deserve three acting nominations.
Comment by tjacob78@msn.com — December 29, 2007 @ 3:43 pm
tjacob,
You’re referring to Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead. It has garnered high praise indeed. Inexplicably it escaped my attention/memory when compiling this list. I’ll likely modify my predictions, excising Eastern Promises in favor of BDKYD in the Best Picture category.
Comment by Scudworth — December 29, 2007 @ 3:52 pm
That would be a good idea, IMO, Scudworth. Eastern Promises was definitely the most disappointing movie I saw this year.
Comment by MCQ — December 29, 2007 @ 5:07 pm
I think Children of Men was the second best movie of 2006.
I also think CWW replaces Eastern Promises in the Best Picture race, Tom Hanks and Viggo Mortensen replace Affleck and Gere in Best Actor (the Hoax, while fun, was way too small and too early in the year), and Page replaces Blanchett in Best Actress.
By the way, American Gangster was an adapted screenplay.
Comment by Matt B — December 29, 2007 @ 5:59 pm
Matt,
Though it is loosely based upon a New York Magazine article by Mark Jacobson, Universal is evidently positioning American Gangster as an original screenplay, based, presumably, on the looseness of the adaptation. Not sure how this will shake out — perhaps the posturing will cost AG a nomination altogether for screenwriting.
I was exceptionally impressed with both Affleck and Gere, much less so with Mortensen. And while Hanks’ performance was certainly memorable (and he had stupendous material with which to work in Sorkin’s dialog), I’m just not a big fan of giving him another statue for playing an idiosyncratic, over-the-top, socko character (pace Forrest Gump).
What, pray tell, was first?
Comment by Scudworth — December 29, 2007 @ 6:31 pm
Ah, I actually was very impressed with Affleck as well, but suspect his votes will split between GBG and Robert Ford. I’d actually be less surprised to see him show up in the supporting category for the latter (dropping, probably, one of the Old Men, most likely Jones, who might turn up in lead for Elah.) Hanks is becoming the male version of Meryl Streep; a nomination for every high-profile role. Perhaps I’m cynical, but I’m thinking predictions, not preferences.
Brick.
Comment by Matt B — December 29, 2007 @ 6:53 pm
Are you sure Josh Brolin falls under Supporting Actor on that one?
Comment by Eric Russell — December 29, 2007 @ 10:41 pm
BTW, Disturbia for best original screenplay?!
Please, it’s a blatant rip-off of Rear Window and everyone in the academy is smart enough to know that.
I’d like to see Apatow get the recognition.
Comment by Brian G — December 29, 2007 @ 11:00 pm
That’s a good point, Eric. Given the guys getting supporting nominations, I’m wondering who the lead in No Country was.
Comment by Matt B — December 29, 2007 @ 11:12 pm
God Bless Matt B.
Comment by MCQ — December 30, 2007 @ 12:41 pm
Re: NCFOM acting lead.
You make a good point about Brolin. As a relatively small star, he seems to have had precious little screen time for a lead. If he were more of a power actor (witness Anthony Hopkins’ Oscar for like 9 minutes screen time in Silence of the Lambs), I’d be more optimistic on his behalf. Personally I’d prefer him to get a nod over Denzel, but star power speaks volumes. As for supporting actor, I know people are talking a lot about Bardem, but I was absolutely enthralled by Jones.
Comment by Scudworth — December 30, 2007 @ 5:16 pm
I think Juno and Once both deserve some love here. Check out the AICN awards.
Comment by Supergenius — December 30, 2007 @ 9:36 pm
The thing about Hopkins in Silence was that it seemed like he was in the movie more despite limited actual screen time. That’s partially because the plot had Hannibal “in the background” at all times.
It is interesting when what are really supporting roles get thought of as leads. Usually the Oscars get it right though - think Nicholson in A Few Good Men. A memorable role but definitely supporting - yet most people don’t remember that it was supporting.
Comment by clark — December 31, 2007 @ 9:37 am
If Once doesn’t get a nomination for Best Song, I’m writing off that category forever.
Comment by BTD Greg — December 31, 2007 @ 9:45 am
I’m still surprised Once wasn’t nominated for a Golden Globe in the Musical category.
I bet it will be overlooked.
Comment by Allison — December 31, 2007 @ 9:50 am
I think I may have found the best list of 2008 predictions.
My favorite: “Wes Anderson will announce his plans to make a fictional film biopic about a waggish New York poet who is trying to expunge the memories of his errant father by listening to Buffy Saint Marie records, making chess figurines out of old furniture and listing all the words that rhyme with ‘dream’, but ends up being sued by the Salinger estate.”
Comment by BTD Greg — December 31, 2007 @ 9:53 am
It should probably be pointed out that J.D. Salinger is, as far as most people know, still alive.
Comment by BTD Greg — December 31, 2007 @ 10:00 am
Not only will Juno receive nominations for Screenplay and Actress, but it will also nab a Best Picture nomination. It’s been tracking very strong in both critics and audience circles. Every year you must include a spot in the nominations for a comedy (sometimes a musical), and usually an indie. Past recipients of this indie comedy/musical slot include:
Little Miss Sunshine (2006)
Sideways (2004)
Lost in Translation (2003)
Chicago (2002)
Moulin Rouge (2001)
Chocolat (2000)
American Beauty (1999)
The Full Monty (1998)
Four Weddings and a Funeral (1994)
Juno will fill that slot this year.
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead will not be a Best Picture nominee. I don’t think American Gangster has the legs either.
Comment by Matt Thurston — December 31, 2007 @ 12:45 pm
Not much love for Michael Clayton, huh? Tilda Swinton wins for Best Supporting Actress. You heard it here first.
Comment by Last Lemming — December 31, 2007 @ 11:11 pm
Did anyone here see Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead? I heard it was good but I don’t think it even opened here.
Comment by clark — December 31, 2007 @ 11:40 pm
Clark, I wasn’t a fan of Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead. It has some things going for it, but I think I’m just tired of its genre. At least it wasn’t as bad as the year’s worst film, Margot at the Wedding.
I’m tired of watching movies about a bunch of a$$holes running around being a$$holes for two hours. Just because they’re spitting out clever dialogue doesn’t make it good writing. For the life of me I cannot figure out why it’s so cool to write stories with no character development and no conflict resolution. It’s not cool – it’s a cop out.
Comment by Eric Russell — January 1, 2008 @ 1:04 am
“BTW, Disturbia for best original screenplay?!
Please, it’s a blatant rip-off of Rear Window and everyone in the academy is smart enough to know that”
Beat me to the punch there Brian. Though given past choices I’m not positive what the Academy is smart enough to “know”.
Comment by mo mommy — January 1, 2008 @ 1:08 pm
Eric, doesn’t that describe a lot of the Shakespearean dramas? (Well, depending upon what you mean by conflict resolution - there’s lots of resolutions in Shakespeare but few of his characters are sympathetic)
Comment by Clark — January 1, 2008 @ 1:22 pm
I’m curious if you’re referring to any specific movies, Eric?
Comment by Brian G — January 1, 2008 @ 4:11 pm
Clark, I think Shakespeare’s tragedies offer sufficient moral and psychological complexity that there’s a lot of value in spite of it.
Brian, my cynicism is a reaction to the last few years in general more than anything, but I think it’s been inflamed by a recent barrage of movies featuring tragic/static characters. The two above mentioned films for starters. Also, Into the Wild – some self-pity for his loneliness at the end, but no character change. Sweeney Todd - dito. Charlie Wilson’s War – Wilson points out for us the irony that a murderous dictator has accused him of lacking moral character and seems temporarily humbled by it, but he never actually changes. The Assassination of Jesse James is my favorite movie of the year for its psychology, but alas, another tragedy. Similar situation for No Country for Old Men.
I’m not saying that tragedies can’t be powerful, moral stories – they can. But I think that stories where the characters development is upwards have about ten times more potential than stories with characters whose development is static or downward. And yet it seems we see the latter about ten times more often.
Comment by Eric Russell — January 2, 2008 @ 12:21 am
Can’t believe that Marion Cotillard’s performance as Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose doesn’t rate even a mention. It was a stunning performance, surely worthy of the statuette
Comment by Will Chaplin — January 2, 2008 @ 3:00 am
Will, I think that Cotillard’s chances are hurt by the fact that someone like me, who is probably about as aware as the average Academy voter, has never heard of the actor, the character, or the movie.
Comment by BTD Greg — January 2, 2008 @ 9:37 am
The nominations are up:
Michael Clayton made a stronger showing than I had expected. I’m very glad that “Falling Slowly” received a nod. It’s a hell of a song, and a nice nod to a small indie summer movie that might have gotten forgotten. It’s also nice to see that Brad Bird got a writing nomination.
Comment by BTD Greg — January 22, 2008 @ 2:43 pm
well color me happy. Mme Cotillard has beat the pants of everyone, and at the Baftas!!!
Comment by Will Chaplin — March 11, 2008 @ 9:54 am