And speaking of Oscars….REMINDER

by The Brit

….Rebecca has set-up a Kulturblog Oscar predictathon: http://predict.oscar.go.com/predict/frontpage (group: Kulturblog; password: movies).

27 Comments

  1. Brokeback sweep! The Academy loves to make culturally significant gestures. This is not to say that Brokeback isn’t worthy–I don’t know if it is or not. But it really doesn’t matter. Worthiness takes a back seat to sentiment and cultural impact in Academy voting. (See Ray’s best picture nomination last year for the most recent evidence of the Academy honoring movies independent of quality).

    Comment by Tom — January 31, 2006 @ 4:50 pm

  2. Tom, I resent that you’re suggesting Brokeback Mountain will win despite its worthiness.

    I’m begging everyone to go to this movie. It’s certainly worthy of every accolade it receives.

    Comment by D. Fletcher — January 31, 2006 @ 4:54 pm

  3. D - I agree it’s a very worthy film. I really liked it. Tom is right too though - Hollywood does has a habit of voting for stuff that is in trend, and unfortunately overlooking fantastic performances like Ralph Fiennes in The Constant Gardener.

    Comment by Rebecca — January 31, 2006 @ 4:59 pm

  4. Not all performances can win, though, only one in each category.

    I don’t think Brokeback is going to win for performances.

    Comment by D. Fletcher — January 31, 2006 @ 5:02 pm

  5. D.,
    I certainly don’t mean to hurt anyone’s feelings (except, of course, members of the Academy). If Brokeback wins a bunch it’s not necessarily because of its subject material, but its subject material definitely gives it a leg up.

    I’ll put it this way: when I make Oscar predictions I think much more about the Academy’s political persuasion and sentimentality, as well as the marketing campaigns than I do about the quality of the films and performances.

    Comment by Tom — January 31, 2006 @ 7:08 pm

  6. Truthfully, Tom, I think you’ve analyzed this completely backwards.

    Brokeback Mountain is the kind of film that NEVER wins any awards. The Academy is very… politically motivated to pick the most unpoliticized movie. Check any Best Picture from the last 70 years, and you’ll see what I mean.

    Hollywood may have a leftist bent, but it doesn’t carry over to the winners of the AAs.

    This year, there seems to be something different. This may be the first time in my adult years that the AA may go to a very controversial film that really deserves it.

    Comment by D. Fletcher — January 31, 2006 @ 7:15 pm

  7. D.,

    How many times have their been very controversial films that really deserved it but got snubbed? I can’t think of any, except for The Passion.

    Comment by Eric Russell — January 31, 2006 @ 7:32 pm

  8. The Passion is a very good example of a movie that was completely left out of the AAs because of political problems.

    I don’t think it deserved anything, though.

    I’d have to go back and look through the years. The movie that comes to mind is Citizen Kane, but Hollywood was a real different place then.

    But Rocky wins over Network. Titanic wins over L.A. Confidential. And on and on.

    Remember, the AAs aren’t judged by some small elite committee. It’s really a popularity contest, with thousands of judges. The most popular films will win.

    Comment by D. Fletcher — January 31, 2006 @ 7:36 pm

  9. Well, D., I just don’t think the Academy will be able to pass up this opportunity to make the culturally significant gesture of giving Brokeback Mountain best picture. I’m predicting Ledger for lead actor as well.

    I should say that since I’m not likely to see Brokeback I’ll have to give the Academy the benefit of the doubt if it does win. Even if the Academy doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt.

    Comment by Tom — January 31, 2006 @ 10:53 pm

  10. I agree that Brokeback is the frontrunner for best picture for a number of reasons, which include social ones.

    But I would be extremely surprised if Hoffman were passed up for Capote. He’s pretty much a lock at this point.

    Comment by Eric Russell — February 1, 2006 @ 2:34 am

  11. I agree with you Eric - I think Hoffman is the front runner for best actor, but I do think Brokeback Mountain will win best picture and probably best director too.

    Comment by Rebecca — February 1, 2006 @ 8:10 am

  12. Hoffman’s performance was universally praised and he’s been very well-respected for the past decade or so, so you kind of get the sense that he’s due. Plus, he won the SAG. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he won.

    But Ledger has some things going for him, too, besides the fact that he plays a homosexual in a Culturally
    Significant Film. His performance has also been widely praised. And it’s a Breakout Performance, which the Academy loves.

    If Hoffman wins, it’ll be because of the transformation factor. He’s a big, husky man playing a small, fey man with an odd voice and from what I hear he pulls it off very well.

    Comment by Tom — February 1, 2006 @ 8:53 am

  13. I think you’re right, D, but last year’s “Million Dollar Baby” was pretty political at the end.

    Comment by Pris — February 1, 2006 @ 9:24 am

  14. In what way, Pris?

    Comment by D. Fletcher — February 1, 2006 @ 9:44 am

  15. I don’t see how Hoffmann can lose.

    http://www.hanasiana.com/archives/001123.html

    Comment by D. Fletcher — February 1, 2006 @ 12:13 pm

  16. D: you said (#6) that the academy is politically motivated to pick unpolitical movies. I agree, but I think last year is an exception.

    Comment by Pris — February 1, 2006 @ 12:31 pm

  17. If Hoffman doesn’t win, it will be because of the gay factor.

    I wouldn’t discount Joaquin Phoenix at this point, because he is the sentimental choice. Also, a little less controversial.

    Comment by Jennifer — February 1, 2006 @ 1:09 pm

  18. The Academy may be… reacting counter to big movies of the late 90s, early millenium, movies like Lord of the Rings.

    I don’t think it chooses politicized movies, normally, but yes, last year had some political points, in movies.

    Jennifer, you think Hoffman might not win because of the gay factor? You know Truman Capote was gay, right?

    Comment by D. Fletcher — February 1, 2006 @ 1:21 pm

  19. Yep - I meant that he played a gay and the Academy doesn’t typically give Oscars to gay characters (unless they are dying: Tom Hanks, Philadelphia)

    I think, by and large, that Hollywood is still firmly in the closet.

    Which I consider extremely unfortunate, if you were wondering how I feel about it.

    Comment by Jennifer — February 1, 2006 @ 4:06 pm

  20. Well, I think this year will be different. It will either go to Hoffmann/Capote (gay) or Heath/Brokeback (gay).

    Comment by D. Fletcher — February 1, 2006 @ 4:54 pm

  21. What are some examples of deserving portrayals of gay characters that have been snubbed.

    It wasn’t too long ago that Hilary Swank won for Boys Don’t Cry.

    Comment by Tom — February 1, 2006 @ 4:55 pm

  22. She wasn’t playing a gay character, though. More of a transexual. And guess what, she died! (Following Jennifer’s reasoning.)

    I don’t know that gay characters have been snubbed by Hollywood. I don’t think there’s been a very good movie on a gay theme for a long time. Brokeback is the exception to every rule, and I hope it wins.

    Comment by D. Fletcher — February 1, 2006 @ 4:57 pm

  23. What about Charlize Theron in Monster?

    Comment by Allison — February 2, 2006 @ 9:17 am

  24. Far From Heaven

    Comment by Bryce I — February 2, 2006 @ 10:14 am

  25. I hope it will be different.

    but then, I hoped the Color Purple would win *something*.

    anything.

    Ian McKellen in Gods and Monsters.

    Comment by Jennifer — February 2, 2006 @ 4:03 pm

  26. For Tom, and all the rest of you who are resisting seeing Brokeback Mountain:

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/02/05/LVGMTGVUG31.DTL

    Comment by D. Fletcher — February 5, 2006 @ 3:14 pm

  27. [...] So, if you’re a reader (or not) of the great Kulturblog, then head on over, and follow the instructions to participate in the guess who will win fun! [...]

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